Sports Investing

sports investing 7
hello everybody it is the twenty eighth of august it's a Saturday the years 2010 and I have some investing numbers on the screen and what you're saying you say it's gambling it's sports betting well same thing I don't see much of a difference for if you're good enough if you're smart enough this can be a business or an investment that can be profitable it takes a lot of hard

work and a lot of hard effort but that's the same case if you are investing on the stock market or any other form of calculated gambling and myself I've put a small tiny wager on the Cleveland Browns getting two and a half points what that means is if the cleveland browns win the game or they lose by a single or two points i win and if they do not well then I lose

and that's how the game works and there's many different options just like there is when you play the stock market you can bet parlays meaning well if the law if say the Lions cover this spread along with the Ravens and this cowboy's game goes over 41 then I'm going to get about six to one of my money that's another form of playing and maybe you do what they call a teaser bet meaning

i like the Vikings but I want them at +1 and I want this tennessee game under 43 once again if they both come in you will almost double your money it's it's another way of playing and you don't hear on CNBC which is an investing channel please take the tampa bay buccaneers plus two and a half or whatever they see as good investments they will say go long on alcoa or potash or Google

or research in motion or whatever they'll give a bunch of names which is the same as saying lay the five on the Menace Vikings the different different ways of playing and I decided to make this little article actually I wrote this months ago and I've only done four pages and I put it on the sidelines I'm not too sure if I'm going to continue it if there's enough interest within the comments then I

will and I started off by stating is sports gambling investing and if you look at the definition of investing it is one to commit money or capital in order to gain a financial return to a to spend or devote for future advantage or benefit or to devote morally or psychologically as to / to a purpose commit so it's pretty obvious that if you're making a wager on a sports that you are committing

fiat money capital and they attempt to gain a financial return now it's not guaranteed but over the long run if you are smart enough it could potentially or essentially pretty much be guaranteed and that's the same with stocks where you could buy this one stock at 42 share if you sell it back at 34 it's a loss it's the law sort of like losing on a sports bet and I said here CNBC

very often when you go to the finance web pages like CNBC a yahoo finance they will let you know what investors are doing they may say investors like the market on news of consumer confidence and the Dow Jones is up 80 points if these people are staking money to play then the would be investing seat I haven't edited this yet then they would be investing nonetheless it's a it's a form of gambling and

i put in a few different games here october the 21st 2007 why to play the dead were Broncos that we can well heck let's just make this a little bit bigger here and okay so when weather can also be a factor in games that make investors happy if you understand what conditions can bring this kid were two magnificent results on November 13 2005 the recap of the San Francisco 49ers and chicago bears

gave investors and easy two victories why were they easy this was because of the heavy winds that came to Chicago you should the associated press it up to the game with wind gusts shaking the goalpost roaring through the referees on-field microphone blowing off their caps and sending hot dog wrappers all over Soldier Field neither team can muster much offense and stuck mainly with the run this was an easy under to the total and the

play on the 49ers the Bears were 13 point favorites and the over/under total was close to 30 even the total kept going lower and lower on the weekend as investors were noticing that the wind could reduce the score of the game passing was not expected to be there for either side and field goals would now start to become a problem in fact both quarterbacks Cody Pickett and Kyle Orton had terrible days they combined

only 495 passing yards the entire game final score was 79 for Chicago and therefore both the 49ers and the under was a victory the longest field goal the game was 37 yards generally speaking when you notice that rains and win enter a game than the under is the way to play this Forces teams to try and run the ball more which can result in less total plays in the game as the clock

keeps moving this can also result in turnovers this can work against an under bet if a team loses a ball due to a fumble at their own 10 yard line by the same point they can easily fumble the ball when they are in the red zone which can work for unders so what I'm going to do now is I made a spreadsheet I want to go over it and a lot of

time so here people or sports services touting that they can win eighty percent of the time if you hear that it's a lie it's a major major life for this is a spreadsheet which has a random number generator what I do is you put the long-term percentage in which somebody is going to win the risk that you would put on each individual wager the random number generator will give you a win-loss record

and it will give you an asst here has a chart for the success or unsuccess that happens which will state what the highest you would be at the lowest and what the final balance after 500 beds would be with a total yield so if you want eighty percent of the time risking eighty percent you would be that four dollars by your thousandth bet and really you can't bet when you're down here you're

talking about like a thousandth of a penny you can't bet a thousandth of a penny but for mathematical purposes we'll have it on here no what we'll do is we will change this random number generator to give it some positiveness because it should be gaining eighty percent you don't lose if you're eighty percent and like i said if somebody says they're eighty percent they're lying here's a spot where you go from all the

way from 10,000 down to one hundredth of a penny back up to how many zeros do we got well the high is 117 million so you go from under a hundredth of a penny to 117 million make a new low and now you're at three dollars and ninety-nine cents so let's just change the risk because obviously eighty percent is too much if we change it to seventy percent look at how things are changing

all of a sudden now you're profiting big time and if you want to know what this 1 + 0 0 e + 18 21 to 24 means that's how many zeros there are so we're talking about having a 1 + 21 zeros by goli 390 111 if you're a 60-percent instead you can see how things are starting to look a little bit better because you're not risking as much so you can

take the losses a little bit better forty percent we're talking 30 20 is it's impossible to get this kind of money because this kind of money doesn't even exist as of yet let's assume that you put a realistic vets a three percent of your bankroll together this is what would happen you would be consistently gating money because eighty percent means you're winning four or five games which is pretty much or it is impossible

unless you really really work your butt off over a long period of time nonetheless you can see how it got up to 2.5 billion but realistically get winning eighty percent of time just doesn't happen for you need to go 52.3 percent of the time to win and you're gonna see this getting crushed well not as crushed as I thought it would be because there's only three percent risk the but if I put

it a 50-percent River say twelve percent risk that was going to get crushed you can see here that the final balance was eight thirty two and minus 16 on his previous percent but now it's pretty much lost everything because you're betting too much buddy but a realistic percent that people can get towards a 61 which is extremely extremely profitable and if you risk 75% winning 61 percent of the game you can see how

you would be getting crushed sixty percent crushed fifty percent crushed forty percent you are getting crushed thirty percent probably not so good actually not too bad you have some volatility as you go from this high of 36 thousand down to this low of what is twenty dollars and fifty six sets and then back up to 6,000 but if you risk at a percent level which is more stable you can see how you're

able to handle the losses along the way we'll change the scaling of this a little bit so that it could look a little bit better and that would be a constant pattern of higher highs and higher lows you got a little bit of a slope here but that happens that's part of calculated gambling furious five percent same sort of deal they're up 46,000 after 500 bets or four thousand five hundred per set so there's

a lot of profit in it now if you risk small abouts like say what percent you can see here that it didn't do so well we'll adjust the scaling again we can see that the lowest 974 the highest 2414 so we'll go 900 for a low and we'll go 3,000 for a high and there we can see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows very very adorable put some extra numbers

in there and if say you're really really tight and you didn't want to risk much you risk a quarter of a percent you can see now that the gains are really not coming it to play because you're playing may be too safe at this point way way too safe so once again if we adjust this scaling out here you're going to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows but to

sum up basically what this is saying is that in order to be a successful gambler you need to one know what you're doing be able to take a look at these investing lines and say what's the smart play why is it a smart play what information do I have that says on the long-term I'm going to win this play fifty-five percent of the time I'm going to win this play sixty percent of

the time there's many games that might have seventy seventy-five percent advantage over the long run and that takes a lot of effort and a lot of skill but not only do you need to be able to find good gabes you also need the discipline to be able to not play too many games not force action which would thus reduce your long-term percentage and of course you need to not bet way too much

buddy or else you will lose pretty much everything you got thank you for watching and have yourself a great day bye bye

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sports investing 7hello everybody it is the twenty eighth of august it's a Saturday the years 2010 and I have some investing numbers on the screen and what you're saying you say it's gambling it's sports betting well same thing I don't see much of a difference for if you're good enough if you're smart enough this can be a business or an investment that can be profitable it takes a lot of hardwork and a lot of hard effort but that's the same case if you are investing on the&...